The Trajectory of COVID-19 cases in Select Countries

The trajectory of COVID-19 shows a very different rate of reported new cases.

The trajectory for Italy is strikingly more steep than for South Korea. Some epidemiologists are offering the analysis that there are more elderly people Italy (23% over 65 yrs)  than in South Korea (13% over 65 yrs) as the primary reason for the difference. 

I would like to suggest it was more related to the policy decisions made to stop the spread of the virus, which included immediate isolation and quarantine as well as some methods that would be unacceptable in the U.S. or Europe, such as contact tracing through cellphone records. The government had data about every contact each individual with a cell phone had, enabling the government of South Korea to reach those contacts of infected individuals immediately to contain the spread by isolating or quarantining those that had come in contact with the infected individual. In contrast, according to CGTN (China Global Television Network) the "Mayor of Florence Dario Nardella has suggested residents hug Chinese people to encourage them in the fight against the novel coronavirus."  That was good in spirit, but resulted in a lot more than hugging one individual, where several people would embrace each other at once -- not recommended public health practice. By having groups of 3-4 people hugging each other, it was the opposite of WHO recommendations to practice social distancing. 

The analysis of public health measures will continue to unfold as the escalation of cases continues. But there is hope with the Italy trajectory. Yesterday, there was a drop in cases, that we hope indicates the end of the second peak that is typical in a highly infectious event. There may even be a third peak, but predictably lower.